⏰ Who's Sounding The Recession Alarm?

Good morning. US stock futures were mixed in Thursday morning trading as Wall Street struggled to stabilize following several dramatic swings in recent days.

📉 Banking exec: US recession potentially on the horizon

📝 Our report: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he still believes the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, meaning he’s betting on a recession being the more likely scenario. “There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.

 🔑 Key points:

• Dimon, leader of the biggest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic “hurricane” since 2022.

• When asked if he had changed his view from a February interview with CNBC that markets were too optimistic on recession risks, Dimon said the odds were “about the same” as his earlier call.

• Dimon added he is “a little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can bring inflation down to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy and military.

💡 So what: Jamie Dimon's warning of a potential U.S. recession carries significant implications. As a respected financial leader, Dimon's caution may influence market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in the stock market as investors react to the potential downturn. Businesses might become more conservative with their spending and hiring, anticipating tougher economic conditions. Consumers could tighten their belts, reducing discretionary spending, which would impact retail and service sectors. Policymakers might take Dimon's warning into account, potentially leading to preemptive measures such as monetary easing or fiscal stimulus to mitigate recession risks. Overall, Dimon's warning signals a need for heightened economic vigilance across various sectors.

Thursday - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks

Friday - No Major Economic News

📈 5 investing lessons from Mohnish Pabrai

💰 The difference between pre-paid cards and debit cards!

💸 Here’s why you should take that vacation!

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🏦 Financial watchdog probes banks over peer-to-peer transactions

WHAT: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is probing major U.S. banks for their handling of customer funds on the peer-to-peer payments platform Zelle, the Wall Street Journal reported. The probe focuses on JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo among other large banks, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

WHY: The proliferation of fraud and scams on Zelle, which is owned by seven major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America, has drawn attention from U.S. lawmakers including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and regulators concerned about consumer protection.

💰 Crypto firm fined millions in SEC case

WHAT: Ripple Labs was slapped with a $125 million civil penalty by a federal judge for selling its XRP token to institutional investors, a fraction of what U.S. regulators had initially sought in their lawsuit against the company. The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple Labs in 2020, claiming the firm broke SEC rules when it raised money by selling the digital token without registering it as a security.

WHY: The SEC had sought almost $2 billion in penalties in the case, including more than $876 million in disgorgement and more than $198 million in interest, along with an $876 million civil penalty. The SEC currently has several major cases against crypto exchanges and issuers, accusing them of offering unregistered securities.

🔋 Americans claim billions in tax breaks on clean energy usage

WHAT: American consumers snagged a whopping $8.4 billion in tax breaks from the Inflation Reduction Act for making their homes more energy-efficient in 2023, surpassing officials' expectations, according to Internal Revenue Service data. The tax breaks aim to reduce the cost of buying rooftop solar panels, electric heat pumps and other energy-efficient technologies, while also cutting the household greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to global warming and helping lower long-term utility bills for consumers.

WHY: The tax breaks have proven more popular than initially projected for 2023, the first full year for which the tax benefits were in effect, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on a press call.

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