🏪 Are US Small Businesses In Trouble?

Good morning. US stock futures rose in Friday morning trading as investors awaited key data on the health of the labor market.

🏪 US small businesses mull over hiring plans

📝 Our report: Looks like the hiring excitement among U.S. small businesses hit a snag in March, with plans slumping to their lowest since the pandemic hit in 2020. A net 11% of firms surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) last month said they plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down from 12% in February. With the decline, the index is now below its historic average of 11.8%.

 🔑 Key points:

• The NFIB report comes just ahead of the monthly payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show 200,000 new jobs were created in March, down from the 275,000 initially reported for February and the lowest total since November.

• Job growth has slowed over the last two years, averaging nearly 230,000 a month over the 12 months through February, which is down from about 350,000 a month in the year through February 2023.

• While the outlook for hiring has dimmed, current hiring has held up, with 56% of firms saying they were hiring or trying to hire workers last month, unchanged from February.

💡 So what: A decline in hiring plans among US small businesses could indicate a lack of confidence in the economic outlook. When small businesses are hesitant to hire, it suggests they may be facing challenges such as uncertainty about future demand, rising costs, or difficulty finding qualified workers. This cautious approach to hiring can ripple through the economy, impacting consumer spending, investment, and overall economic growth.

 Friday - US Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit

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🎵 TikTok fights back against potential US ban

WHAT: TikTok, the app known for its viral dances and lip-syncing, just dropped an economic impact report tooting its own horn, aiming to charm its way out of the crosshairs of potential bans in the US. Authored by Oxford Economics, the commissioned study claims TikTok drove $14.7 billion in revenue in a dozen key sectors in the US economy and contributed $24.2 billion to overall GDP in 2023.

WHY: The report comes as the Senate considers a bill to force TikTok's Chinese parent company Bytedance to divest its US assets. If enacted, the measure, which passed overwhelmingly in the House, would set a six-month deadline on the divestiture or else trigger a ban.

🤝 Alphabet consider big acquisition

WHAT: Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has been casually chatting with its advisors about swooping in to make an offer for HubSpot, the online marketing software whiz with a price tag estimated at $35 billion. If Alphabet moves ahead with a bid, it would be a rare example of a major technology company attempting a mega deal amid heightened regulatory scrutiny of the sector under U.S. President Joe Biden's administration.

WHY: The potential acquisition would be Alphabet's largest ever and allow it to put some of its cash pile, which reached $110.9 billion at the end of December, to work.

🐭 Disney CEO says succession main focus after proxy battle

WHAT: Disney's CEO Bob Iger, after dodging activist investor Nelson Peltz like a pro, is now shifting the spotlight to the ultimate game of executive musical chairs: who's next in line to helm the entertainment juggernaut. In an interview with CNBC, Iger said succession planning remains the most important focus area for Disney, categorizing it as the board's "No. 1 priority."

WHY: Disney's succession problems began in 2020 after Iger hand-selected Bob Chapek, who at the time was head of the company's parks, experiences, and products segment, for the job. Chapek was ousted from the position in November 2022 after less than three years on the job.

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