📈 Have We Reached Peak Interest Rates?

Good morning. US stock futures rose in Wednesday morning trading as investors turned their focus to March's highly anticipated inflation report.

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"In my experience, most people who are lucky enough to sell something before it goes down, get so busy patting themselves on the back that they forget to buy it back"

Howard Marks

Top News

Is the interest rate hiking cycle over?

WHAT: "Interest rate hike this, interest rate hike that" has been the call from most central bankers around the world in the last few months. But according to Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, most economies may be "near the peak of their hiking cycle"

WHY: Gourinchas said looking ahead there's no real reason for interest rates to "hike massively" but warned that central banks shouldn't take a step back as many economies are still grappling with elevated levels of inflation.

Kashkari: What's worse than a recession? Sustained inflation

WHAT: Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed was in the mood to drop some truth bombs recently. He said that while there's the risk of a recession associated with the Fed hiking interest rates, and even scarier outcome would be letting inflation run rampant and wreak havoc on the job market.

WHY: "We need to get inflation down. If we fail to do that, your job prospects will be really hard" Kashkari said as he addressed a townhall of students at Montana State University.

Bye bye Twitter, hello...X?

WHAT: Hold on to your tweets folks, because Twitter just got a major plot twist! The company has been merged with a brand-spankin'-new shell company called X Corp, leaving everyone scratching their heads about what Elon Musk is up to now.

WHY: The billionaire owner has in the past suggested that buying Twitter would be an "accelerant" for creating X — which he dubbed an "everything app". Musk has previously expressed his desire to make X a super app used for everything from payments and booking tickets to messaging.

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In Other News

World Bank President: Western Europe needs to chip in on Ukraine rebuild

 WHAT: World Bank President David Malpass reiterated his organization's commitment to helping Ukraine get back on its feet — but he's adding a kicker this time: the Bank can't do it alone and Western European countries will have to pitch in and assist.

WHY: Malpass, speaking at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, noted the Bank's role in rebuilding Europe after World War Two, but called the size of reconstructing Ukraine "daunting" and beyond the capabilities of the IMF and World Bank alone.

About those driverless trucks...

WHAT: A US transport union is giving Alphabet's self-driving startup Waymo and their autonomous driving pals at Aurora Innovation some serious side eye. Both companies are asking for an exemption from rules on warning devices such as reflective triangles, or flares around stopped trucks, for large semi-trucks and the union is having none of it.

WHY: The Transport Workers Union of America said the exemption petition from both companies was "inappropriate, represents and overreach and misuse of the waiver and exemption process and would significantly diminish safety on the roads"

Vacation? What vacation?

WHAT: Here's a stat that'll make you scratch your head: Turns out, almost half of US workers (46%) are like "Nah, I'll pass" when it comes to taking their paid time off vacation leave according to a recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center.

WHY: The survey cited the main reasons for workers not taking their time off included: fear of missing out on job advancement opportunities, the risk of losing their job, and not being encouraged to take time off by their managers or supervisors.

Key Economic Events

  • Wednesday - US Inflation Rate Y-o-Y, FOMC Minutes

  • Thursday - No Major Economic News

  • Friday - Fed's Waller Speaks, U. Of. Mich. Consumer Sentiment

Notable Briefs

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