🛢️ Is The Oil Market Rigged?

Good morning. US stock futures rose in Friday morning trading as traders await closely followed inflation data and count down to the end of what has been a strong first half of the year.

🛢️ US Senate probes possible oil market collusion

📝 Our report: A US Senate committee is probing whether oil producers are secretly teaming up with OPEC to hike prices, after claims that Pioneer Natural Resources' ex-boss was in cahoots with the cartel. The probe is being led by Budget Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse, who has requested documents from 18 oil companies — including Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC, and Chevron Corp. — on grounds that evidence suggests the oil and gas industry may be trying to depress production.

 🔑 Key points:

• The documents sought by Whitehouse include communications among company officials and members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries related to oil production and prices, from January 2020 to the present.

• The probe comes after the Federal Trade Commission, as part of its review of Exxon’s $60 billion takeover of Pioneer, said it found evidence Pioneer’s former head, Scott Sheffield, sought to communicate with OPEC and US peers about oil pricing and output.

• “I am concerned about the possibility that oil and gas companies could be engaging in collusive, anti-competitive activities with OPEC+ that would raise crude oil prices, resulting in higher costs not only for American families,” Whitehouse wrote in letters to the companies that were made public.

💡 So what: If US energy companies collude with OPEC over production and prices, it could lead to several significant implications. Firstly, consumers might face higher energy costs as coordinated production cuts could drive up oil prices. This could increase inflationary pressures, affecting various sectors reliant on affordable energy. Secondly, such collusion could attract legal and regulatory scrutiny, resulting in hefty fines and damaging the reputation of the involved companies. Lastly, it could strain international relations, particularly with countries advocating for free market principles and transparency in the global energy market.

Friday - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks in Paris, Consumer Sentiment (final)

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💸 IMF warns US on rising debt levels

WHAT: The International Monetary Fund has urged the U.S. to hike taxes to tackle rising debt while praising the country's "robust, dynamic" growth and progress in taming inflation. The IMF said in a closing statement for its "Article IV" review of U.S. economic policies that high deficits and debt "create a growing risk to the U.S. and global economy, potentially feeding into higher fiscal financing costs and a growing risk to the smooth rollover of maturing obligations."

WHY: For the second year in a row, the Fund prescribed that the U.S. increase income tax rates progressively, not only on the wealthiest Americans but also for households earning less than $400,000 a year -- a threshold that U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed not to cross in his re-election campaign pledges.

🔨 NFL fined over violating antitrust laws

WHAT: A jury in U.S. District Court ruled that the NFL violated antitrust laws by distributing out-of-market Sunday afternoon games on a premium subscription service, awarding nearly $4.7 billion in damages. The jury ordered the league to pay $4 billion in damages to the residential class and $96 million in damages to the commercial class.

WHY: The lawsuit covered 2.4 million residential subscribers and 48,000 businesses who paid for the package of out-of-market games from the 2011 through 2022 seasons on DirecTV. The lawsuit claimed the league broke antitrust laws by selling its package of Sunday games at an inflated price.

👖 TikTok set to challenge Amazon with sales event

WHAT: TikTok is taking on Amazon's Prime Day in July, with it own "Deals For You Days" starting on July 9 in the U.S. The announcement comes a few days after Amazon revealed that its annual Prime Day sales will take place on July 16 and 17. The success of Prime Day has led to other retailers, both large and small, co-opting the day to run competing sales.

WHY: TikTok has been betting big on its e-commerce efforts and is aiming to grow the size of its TikTok Shop U.S. business tenfold to as much as $17.5 billion this year. With this upcoming deals event, TikTok is looking to take on one of the largest sales events in the U.S.

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