✂️ Is An Interest Rate Cut Coming?

Good morning. US stock futures were mixed in Monday morning trading as investors start a holiday-shortened week.

✂️ Fed exec: December rate cuts probable

📝 Our report: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari thinks it’s “reasonable” the central bank will play Santa and cut interest rates once this year, likely waiting until December to do it. "We need to see more evidence to convince us that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%," Kashkari said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation" program.

 🔑 Key points:

• The Fed has held its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since last July, to keep continued pressure on the economy so as to cool inflation.

• Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, registered 2.7% in April. The Fed has a 2% target.

• Kashkari, who has been more cautious about the possibility of easing monetary policy than many of his colleagues, did not say how many rate cuts he personally expects.

💡 So what: The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by December will depend on several factors, including inflation trends, economic growth, labor market conditions, financial stability, global economic conditions, and consumer and business confidence. If inflation cools toward the Fed's 2% target, economic growth slows, the job market weakens, financial instability arises, international economic challenges persist, or consumer and business confidence declines, the Fed might be inclined to lower rates to stimulate the economy and ensure financial stability. The Fed will carefully weigh these indicators before making any decisions.

Monday - Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speech, Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech

Tuesday - U.S. Retail Sales, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speech

Wednesday - No Major Economic News

Thursday - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

Friday - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators

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 📈 The Safest Investment You Could Make

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👟 Shoemaker investigates bribery allegations in China

WHAT: Adidas is diving into an investigation of alleged large-scale bribery in China after a whistleblower claimed senior staff pocketed "millions of euros." An anonymous letter, which claims to have been written by “employees of Adidas China” alleged that Adidas staff received kickbacks from external service providers who were commissioned by the German group.

WHY: Adidas revamped its leadership in China last year after suffering an unprecedented crisis in what until the Covid-19 pandemic was its fastest-growing and highly profitable market.

🤖 AI powered newsrooms unsettle global audiences

WHAT: Global worries about AI in news production and misinformation are mounting, according to a Reuters Institute report. According to the report, 52% of U.S. respondents and 63% of UK respondents surveyed said they would be uncomfortable with news produced mostly with AI. The report surveyed 2,000 people in each country, noting that respondents were more comfortable with behind-the-scenes uses of AI to make journalists' work more efficient.

WHY: Newsrooms globally are working to address a new challenge with generative artificial intelligence, as tech giants and startups like Google and OpenAI build tools that can offer summaries of information and siphon traffic from news websites.

💵 Gender pay gap progress stalls in US

WHAT: The US is still trailing behind in closing the gender gap, according to the World Economic Forum's latest report. The 2024 Global Gender Gap Report ranks the US 43rd out of 146 economies. The country's gender parity score, which measures progress in closing inequalities between men and women, remained roughly the same at 74.7% since last year.

WHY: Since its launch in 2006, the index has tracked global progress in closing the gender gap across four main categories: educational attainment, health, political empowerment, and economic participation. This year, the WEF report found that nearly every economy has closed more than 60% of its gender gap, a benchmark fewer countries reached nearly two decades ago.

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