🛍️ Are US Consumers Losing Hope?

Good morning. US stock futures dipped in Wednesday morning trading as the broad market indices climbed to new records.

😬 US consumers show worry as confidence declines to 3-year low

📝 Our report: Consumer confidence took a nosedive in September as Americans started feeling jittery about the cooling job market. The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 98.7, below the 105.6 seen in August and lower than what the 104 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected.

 🔑 Key points:

• The drop in consumer confidence from August to September was the largest decline since August 2021, according to the Conference Board.

• Unemployment has steadily risen throughout 2024 and sits at 4.2%, just below its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, job openings declined in July to their lowest level since January 2021.

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently acknowledged there are rising risks of further slowing in the labor market. But for now, he sees a labor market that is "actually in solid condition."

💡 So what: The drop in U.S. consumer confidence to a 3-year low suggests increasing concerns about the economy. Lower confidence typically translates to reduced consumer spending, which can slow economic growth since consumer spending drives a significant portion of the U.S. economy. Concerns about job security, inflation, and rising interest rates may also play a role. If confidence continues to weaken, businesses may experience lower sales, potentially impacting hiring and investment decisions, further fueling economic uncertainty and contributing to a possible slowdown.

Wednesday - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Speaks

Thursday - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Gives Opening Remarks, GDP (second revision)

Friday - Consumer Sentiment (final)

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🏡 US home prices soar to record highs

WHAT: US home prices hit a new record in July, giving buyers a fresh headache as affordability remains tough, even with mortgage rates dipping slightly. The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 0.2% over the prior month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from June’s monthly increase. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase and an all-time high for the index.

WHY: New York reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller in July, with annual price gains clocking in at 8.8%. Las Vegas and Los Angeles followed with gains of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively.

🎵 TikTok Music to come to an end

WHAT: ByteDance announced it’s pulling the plug on TikTok Music in November, proving that even viral sensations can’t always hit the right note in the streaming game! TikTok said that it will continue partnering with music streaming services rather than competing with them. "We are sorry to inform you that TikTok Music will be closing on 28 November 2024," a notice on TikTok Music's website reads. The service was available in Indonesia, Brazil, Australia, Singapore, and Mexico.

WHY: TikTok has had a shaky relationship with the music industry lately. Earlier this year, Universal Music Group (UMG) pulled its music catalog out of the service after disagreements over royalties. In response, TikTok called out UMG for "false narrative and rhetoric." In March, both parties called a truce and signed a new deal.

🛢️ OPEC projects oil outlook to 2050

WHAT: OPEC boosted its oil demand forecasts for the medium and long term, citing growth driven by India, Africa, and the Middle East, with the shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels moving slower than expected. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook, sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Agency, which see oil use peaking this decade.

WHY: OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels a day (bpd) by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year's report. The report rolled out its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.

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